近期，人形机器人赛道成为了投资领域的热门话题，不过，这个话题的主角不是某项重大技术突破，而是一场围绕投资策略展开的激烈讨论。金沙江创投的朱啸虎宣布批量退出人形机器人项目，这一消息犹如一颗投入平静湖面的石子，在创投圈激起千层浪。

朱啸虎直言，那些售价高达 20 万一台的机器人，连端咖啡这样简单的任务都难以完成，还质疑央企采购这类机器人只是面子工程。他的这番 “泡沫论” 瞬间引发了各方的回应。经纬的张颖在朋友圈回应 “朱老板别闹”，众擎机器人 CEO 更是讽刺其 “只配做快餐式投资”。而被撤资的星海图则晒出高瓴、蚂蚁接盘的数据，有力地进行了反驳。

在这场争论背后，真正值得关注的是：在这个人形机器人被视作万亿规模的潜力赛道中，究竟需要怎样的投资机构？回顾过去十年，创投圈因盲目跟风投资吃了不少苦头。以共享单车、在线教育、新消费、半导体、无人驾驶等行业为例，大量资金短时间涌入，造成短期内明星项目估值飙升，但长远来看，市场严重供过于求。共享单车领域，2016 年 20 余家企业混战，融资超 30 亿元，到了 2018 年，90% 的企业倒闭，仅剩下三家巨头；在线教育在 2020 年时，头部 10 家企业融资超千亿，广告投放铺天盖地，然而 “双减” 政策出台后，行业估值缩水 80%，成功转型的企业存活率不足 20%。这些行业发展后期的不良后果，都给二级市场带来了巨大压力。

展开剩余91%

就人形机器人赛道而言，同样面临这样的问题。2025 年春晚，宇树机器人走红后，投资机构闻风而动，掀起了老股抢购潮。部分机构给出 120 亿元的估值溢价（相较于 C 轮 80 亿溢价 50%）抢购股份，甚至有投资人表示只要能投进去，其他都不重要。这种一哄而上的投资行为，从长期来看，对市场危害极大。虽然短期内能为企业补充资金，但这类投资往往缺乏长期规划，一旦行业发展遇冷，投资机构可能会迅速撤资，通过 “无限连带 + 回购” 等手段给企业带来沉重负担。从这个角度看，朱啸虎的言论虽然引发争议，但也可能让部分冲动的投资机构冷静下来，避免大量资金的浪费。

尽管当前人形机器人投资存在争议，但从长远发展来看，其前景依然被很多人看好。从根本上来说，社会上的商品和服务都是为了便利人类的活动，人形机器人若想发挥最大价值，就需要与人类 100% 兼容，遵循相同的规则，融入人类生活。

不过，对于投资机构来说，他们面临着现实的考量 —— 通常 8 - 10 年就要实现投资退出。那么，机器人公司能否满足他们安全退出的需求呢？这需要满足两个关键条件：一是未来 6 - 8 年，人形机器人公司具备上市的可能性；二是市场上的机器人公司数量合理，不存在过度同质化竞争的情况。

从目前的市场情况来看，虽然人形机器人距离大规模商业化至少还需要 5 - 10 年，但部分领域已经开始出现订单。在工业制造领域，特斯拉 Optimus Gen2 已获得车企超 5000 台订单，单价 20 万美元；宇树科技 H1 机器人在工业场景的订单占比达到 60%，2025 年第一季度交付量为 1200 台。在科研与教育领域，宇树科技中标 30 所高校的订单，单校采购量在 10 - 50 台，均价 15 万元 / 台；乐聚机器人的科研订单已经排到 2025 年 6 月，海外交付占比 40% 。这表明，在市场引入期，部分头部企业已经凭借这些订单获得了不错的发展。

供应链公司有望率先实现盈利，部分机器人整机公司也能在工业、科研教育等领域取得突破。但这一切的前提是，投资机构不能盲目跟风，避免造成行业的过度竞争和资源浪费。这场关于人形机器人的行业讨论，对整个行业的健康发展有着至关重要的意义。

The Investment Turmoil in the Humanoid Robot Track: A Sober Reflection Amidst the Boom

Recently, the humanoid robot track has become a hot topic in the investment field. However, the protagonist of this topic is not a major technological breakthrough, but a fierce debate centered around investment strategies. Zhu Xiaohu from GSR Ventures announced the batch withdrawal from humanoid robot projects, and this news, like a pebble thrown into a calm lake, stirred up waves in the venture capital circle.

Zhu Xiaohu bluntly stated that those robots, which cost as much as $200,000 each, can't even perform simple tasks like carrying coffee. He also questioned that the purchases of such robots by central enterprises were merely for show. His "bubble theory" immediately triggered responses from various parties. Zhang Ying from Matrix Partners responded in his WeChat Moments, saying, "Boss Zhu, stop kidding." The CEO of Zhongqing Robot even sarcastically remarked that Zhu "only deserves to make short - term, quick - profit investments." In response, Xinghaitu, the company from which the investment was withdrawn, revealed data showing that Hillhouse Capital and Ant Financial had taken over the investment, refuting the claim forcefully.

Behind this debate, what truly deserves attention is: In this potential trillion - scale track of humanoid robots, what kind of investment institutions are needed? Looking back at the past decade, the venture capital circle has suffered a lot from blind follow - the - trend investments. Take industries such as shared bicycles, online education, new consumption, semiconductors, and autonomous driving as examples. A large amount of capital poured in within a short period, causing the valuations of star projects to soar in the short term. However, in the long run, the market supply far exceeded demand. In the shared bicycle sector, in 2016, more than 20 companies were engaged in fierce competition, with financing exceeding 3 billion yuan. By 2018, 90% of the companies went bankrupt, leaving only three major players. In 2020, the top 10 companies in the online education industry raised over 100 billion yuan in financing, and advertising campaigns were everywhere. However, after the "Double Reduction" policy was introduced, the industry's valuation shrank by 80%, and the survival rate of successfully transformed companies was less than 20%. The negative consequences of the later development of these industries have brought huge pressure to the secondary market.

The humanoid robot track faces similar issues. After Yushu Robotics became popular during the 2025 Spring Festival Gala, investment institutions rushed in, triggering a rush to buy old shares. Some institutions offered a valuation premium of 12 billion yuan (a 50% premium compared to the 8 - billion - yuan valuation in the C - round) to snap up shares, and some investors even said that as long as they could invest, other considerations were secondary. Such blind - rush investment behavior is extremely harmful to the market in the long run. Although it can supplement the capital of enterprises in the short term, this kind of investment often lacks long - term planning. Once the industry development cools down, investment institutions may quickly withdraw their investments and burden the enterprises with heavy costs through means such as "unlimited joint liability + buy - back". From this perspective, although Zhu Xiaohu's remarks have sparked controversy, they may also calm down some impulsive investment institutions and avoid the waste of a large amount of capital.

Despite the current disputes over humanoid robot investment, many people are still optimistic about its long - term development. Fundamentally, the goods and services in society are designed to facilitate human activities. If humanoid robots are to maximize their value, they need to be 100% compatible with humans, follow the same rules, and integrate into human life.

However, for investment institutions, they face practical considerations - they usually need to exit their investments within 8 - 10 years. So, can robot companies meet their requirements for a safe exit? This requires meeting two key conditions: First, within the next 6 - 8 years, humanoid robot companies have the possibility of going public; second, the number of robot companies in the market is reasonable, and there is no excessive homogeneous competition.

Judging from the current market situation, although it will take at least 5 - 10 years for humanoid robots to achieve large - scale commercialization, orders have started to appear in some fields. In the industrial manufacturing field, Tesla's Optimus Gen2 has received over 5,000 orders from car manufacturers, with a unit price of $200,000. The H1 robot of Yushu Robotics accounted for 60% of industrial orders, and the delivery volume in the first quarter of 2025 reached 1,200 units. In the scientific research and education field, Yushu Robotics won orders from 30 universities, with each school purchasing 10 - 50 units at an average price of 150,000 yuan per unit. The scientific research orders of Leju Robotics have been scheduled until June 2025, and the overseas delivery accounted for 40%. This shows that during the market introduction period, some leading enterprises have achieved good development with these orders.

Supply chain companies are expected to be the first to achieve profitability, and some robot - making companies can also make breakthroughs in industries such as industrial manufacturing and scientific research and education. However, all of this is premised on investment institutions not blindly following the trend and avoiding excessive competition and resource waste in the industry. This industry - wide debate on humanoid robots is of great significance for the healthy development of the entire industry.

发布于：浙江省